Aaron Gerding

I build, evaluate, and combine (mainly probabilistic) forecasts of the incidence and outcomes of infectious diseases.

My work is anchored in the goal of understanding and formalizing how forecasts can be structured and presented to best support adaptive public health policy. In order for epidemiogical forecasting to lead to policy that is both just and effective, I see it as crucial that operational statistical methodologies retain a special focus on those populations with the lowest social and political visibility.

Previously I studied the differential geometry of surfaces immersed in space forms from the perspective of integrable systems theory and explored information geometry while transitioning to data science.